COGnitions

30
November 2018
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Boston's “Ultra Luxury” Market - $5M+ | By Jeff Hamilton

Sometimes it’s hard to find information that is pertinent to your specific real estate bracket. Often, real estate statistics are presented in lumps and chunks that are not as readily relevant to your use case. At Columbus & Over Group, we want you to have the statistics that matter to you. With data at your fingertips, decisions become more apparent and stress can be reduced.

We're working on a longer form publication that will come out after the New Year and focus on smaller sub-neighborhoods in Boston proper. In the interim, here's a preview of what's going on in the $5M+ market around the city. If the price point does not apply directly to you, perhaps it will give you a couple of unique talking points at your upcoming holiday events!

The current data will show that the $5M plus market in Boston is having a flat year. Much like 2015 was a plateau year before a big jump for the high end market in 2016, 2018 is setting up similarly.

Whereas 2016 brought the opening of Millennium Tower in DTX (25 sales over $5M), 2019 will bring a number of new construction sales at properties like One Dalton in the Prudential neighborhood, at the Archer on the North Slope of Beacon Hill, and at Pier 4 in the Seaport. The "organic" market of $5M+ brownstone properties is likely to see growth in the South End while Back Bay and Beacon Hill brownstones continue to establish a strong precedent for $2,000+ per square foot pricing on condos and single families.

While we see stagnation in the number of sales this year, the average price per foot on these sales has climbed every year for the last five years. 2018 will conclude the year up 31+% since year end 2014 on a price per foot basis.

Here are the numbers. Feel free to share it with those who might be interested or send me an email if you'd like to get deeper into the “mud!”

2018 YTD sales


  • 51 total sales (+7 UAG and expected to close in 2018)
  • volume = $348M (+/= $45M UAG)
  • Avg $ / SF: $2,125
  • Med $/SF: $2,136

Notes:

  • Market pricing up 27% in three years (since year end 2015)
  • 2 sales over $3,000/SF. Likely 8 over $2,500/SF by year end.
  • Sales volume relatively flat year over year in 17 and 18 (pent up demand with new construction pipeline)
  • Highest $/SF for the year is $3,100 (old Four Seasons)
  • 50 Liberty delivered 11 sales over $5M in the Seaport
  • Grand Penthouse at Millennium Tower back on the market for $45M (3,500/SF)

2017 sales


  • 57 total sales
  • volume = $405M
  • Avg $ / SF: 1,918
  • Med $ / SF: 2,042

Notes:

  • 6 sales over $2,500/SF. None over $3,000/SF
  • 17 sales at Millennium tower
  • Highest $/SF for the year was $2,925 (25 Beacon)

2016 sales


  • 60 total sales
  • volume = $447M
  • Avg $ / SF: 2,023
  • Med $ / SF: 1,998

Notes:

  • This year the Millennium Tower opened in Midtown
  • 25 sales over $5M at Millennium Tower
  • Grand Penthouse at Millennium Tower was record breaking sale at $35M (Just under $3,000/SF)
  • 8 sales over $2,500/SF (5 at Millennium Tower)

2015 sales


  • 35 total sales
  • volume = $253M
  • Avg $ / SF: 1,735
  • Med $ / SF: 1,687

Notes:

  • Record breaking sale at the Mandarin for $3,879/SF.
  • Three sales over $3,000/SF in this year.
  • Nothing else over $2,500/SF

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