COGnitions

16
December 2016
COMMENTS (0)Buyer Advice, Market Trends, Money & Financial, Seller Advice

In real estate, “Acute” Statistics are Meaningful Statistics - preview of year end market data | By Jeff Hamilton

In real estate, “Acute” Statistics are Meaningful Statistics - preview of year end market data

 The residential real estate market is often subject to sweeping, market wide (even state, regional or national) statistics that can be very misleading for local markets. Not to say that broader stats lack all merit, but when our clients are preparing to make decisions, we want to provide them with “acute statistics” that take into consideration specific cases and data that are ultimately meaningful to their investment decision. For example, the fact that Massachusetts single family home sales are up 1.7 percent for the year is meaningless when the client is pursuing a $3.5M condo purchase in the Beacon Hill!

Our analysis leads to insights, or, as we call them, COGnitions, that may tell a different story than the eye-catching headers that ultimately prove to be “click bait” for the most trafficked real estate blogs.

While we have not quite closed out the year, we can say, definitively, that it was a good year for the Boston luxury markets in Back Bay, South End, Beacon Hill and Downtown Crossing. But who cares if we say it? Here are the stats that prove it:

$1M and Up

  • Downtown Crossing’s price per square foot was up 27.8%
    • This is driven entirely by the opening of Millennium Tower and it’s 425 units sold.
    • The average price per square foot across the 425 sales was $1,434.
  • Back Bay’s price per square foot was up 1.2%
  • South End’s price per square foot was up 6.1%
  • Beacon Hill’s price per square foot was up 2.3%

$3M and Up

  • Downtown Crossing’s price per square foot was up 28%
  • Back Bay’s price per square foot was up 2.5%
  • South End’s price per square foot was up 5.9%
  • Beacon Hill’s price per square foot was up 9.2%

Inventory, $1-3M

  • Back Bay: 1.44 months
  • South End: 1.71 months
  • Beacon Hill: 4.41 months
  • Downtown Crossing: 0.90 months*

Inventory, $3M and up

  • Back Bay: 5.6 months
  • South End: 7.76 months
  • Beacon Hill: 13.41 months
  • Downtown Crossing: 2.46 months*

*skewed by Millennium Tower opening. This is still very much an “emerging” market.

  • All data provided by LINK Boston and MLS Pin

A housing market’s “Supply” or “Inventory” is calculated by dividing the number of active listings in a given market by the number of units sold per month, on average, over the previous 12 months. The result is the number of months it would take to sell off the inventory at the current rate if no new listings came on the market.

Buyer's Market: When there is more than six months of inventory.
Balanced Market: When there is between four and six months of inventory.
Seller's Market: When there is less than four months of inventory.

As always, we look forward to any questions on this information and/or inquiries on alternative Boston real estate data sets.